Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Edson Barboza
Kevin Lee
43%
57%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
32
Age
Δ 7y
26
24-15
Career record
Δ 5 pp
18-9
L1
Current streak
L1
18
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 5
Barboza: 51 sig / 0 TD ·
Lee: 142 sig / 4 TD
Edson Barboza
Kevin Lee
51
Sig strikes landed
54
110
Sig strikes attempted
126
55
Total strikes landed
77
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.6
0.2
Takedowns attempted
5.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
26s
Control time
194s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Edson Barboza
"Junior"
24-15
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
18 fights · 13-5
Last 5
L
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—
Blue corner
L1
Kevin Lee
"The Motown Phenom"
18-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
L
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—