Prelims1
Welterweight
Siyar Bahadurzada vs Luan Chagas
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
·Boardwalk Hall
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Siyar Bahadurzada
Luan Chagas
49%
51%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
34
Age
Δ 9y
25
25-8-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
16-3-1
W2
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Bahadurzada: 33 sig / 1 TD ·
Chagas: 11 sig / 0 TD
Siyar Bahadurzada
Luan Chagas
50
Sig strikes landed
46
109
Sig strikes attempted
99
61
Total strikes landed
72
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.8
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
92s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Siyar Bahadurzada
"The Great"
25-8-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—
W
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
L
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—
Blue corner
W1
Luan Chagas
"Tarzan"
16-3-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
3 fights · 1-1
Last 3
W
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
D
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—