Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Aljamain Sterling
Brett Johns
65%
35%
Why
71"
Reach
71"
29
Age
Δ 2y
26
26-6
Career record
Δ 9 pp
18-2
L1
Current streak
W3
9
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sterling: 89 sig / 3 TD ·
Johns: 27 sig / 1 TD
Aljamain Sterling
Brett Johns
41
Sig strikes landed
38
84
Sig strikes attempted
88
66
Total strikes landed
66
1.8
Takedowns landed
2.3
5.4
Takedowns attempted
5.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
176s
Control time
260s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Aljamain Sterling
"Funk Master"
26-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
W
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
L
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
Blue corner
W3
Brett Johns
"The Pikey"
18-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A New Wor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—