Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Dan Hooker
Gilbert Burns
57%
43%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
71"
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
25-14
Career record
Δ 6 pp
23-10
W3
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hooker: 22 sig / 0 TD ·
Burns: 13 sig / 0 TD
Dan Hooker
Gilbert Burns
45
Sig strikes landed
35
101
Sig strikes attempted
84
57
Total strikes landed
50
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.3
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
53s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Dan Hooker
"The Hangman"
25-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
W
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
Blue corner
W2
Gilbert Burns
"Durinho"
23-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—