Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Curtis Millender
Max Griffin
76%
24%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
31
Age
Δ 2y
33
18-5
Career record
Δ 16 pp
21-13
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Millender: 38 sig / 1 TD ·
Griffin: 44 sig / 1 TD
Curtis Millender
Max Griffin
56
Sig strikes landed
42
133
Sig strikes attempted
124
65
Total strikes landed
47
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.2
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
48s
Control time
35s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Curtis Millender
"Curtious"
18-5
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
Blue corner
W1
Max Griffin
"Pain"
21-13
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—