Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Michael Chiesa
Anthony Pettis
59%
41%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
31
Age
Δ 1y
31
20-8
Career record
Δ 3 pp
24-11
L1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Chiesa: 12 sig / 2 TD ·
Pettis: 9 sig / 0 TD
Michael Chiesa
Anthony Pettis
32
Sig strikes landed
34
70
Sig strikes attempted
63
50
Total strikes landed
48
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.4
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
190s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Michael Chiesa
"Maverick"
20-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
W
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
Blue corner
L1
Anthony Pettis
"Showtime"
24-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
13 fights · 7-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
W
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
L
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
W
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
L
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—