Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Paul Felder
Mike Perry
58%
42%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
71"
34
Age
Δ 7y
27
18-6
Career record
Δ 14 pp
14-9
W3
Current streak
L2
10
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Felder: 56 sig / 0 TD ·
Perry: 62 sig / 2 TD
Paul Felder
Mike Perry
51
Sig strikes landed
39
116
Sig strikes attempted
96
58
Total strikes landed
46
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.2
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.50
114s
Control time
58s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Paul Felder
"The Irish Dragon"
18-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
Blue corner
L2
Mike Perry
"Platinum"
14-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
L
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—