Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Francis Ngannou
Derrick Lewis
56%
44%
Why
83"
Reach
Δ 4"
79"
32
Age
Δ 2y
33
17-4
Career record
Δ 11 pp
30-13
L1
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ngannou: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Lewis: 20 sig / 0 TD
Francis Ngannou
Derrick Lewis
28
Sig strikes landed
25
66
Sig strikes attempted
50
38
Total strikes landed
31
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.2
1.2
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
99s
Control time
53s
Method
Decision
19%
KO/TKO
67%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Francis Ngannou
"The Predator"
17-4
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
83"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
L
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
W
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
Blue corner
W1
Derrick Lewis
"The Black Beast"
30-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
13 fights · 10-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—