🏆 Title fight
Main
Heavyweight
Stipe Miocic vs Daniel Cormier
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Stipe Miocic
Daniel Cormier
59%
41%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 8"
72"
36
Age
Δ 3y
39
21-5
Career record
Δ 8 pp
23-3
W6
Current streak
W5
14
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Miocic: 24 sig / 1 TD ·
Cormier: 25 sig / 0 TD
Stipe Miocic
Daniel Cormier
63
Sig strikes landed
61
117
Sig strikes attempted
126
93
Total strikes landed
94
1.2
Takedowns landed
2.0
3.2
Takedowns attempted
6.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
117s
Control time
171s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Stipe Miocic
21-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
14 fights · 12-2
Last 5
W
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
W
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
W
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
Blue corner
W5
Daniel Cormier
"DC"
23-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
11 fights · 9-1
Last 5
W
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
W
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
W
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—