Prelims2
Bantamweight
Matthew Lopez vs Alejandro Perez
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje
·Gila River Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Matthew Lopez
Alejandro Perez
35%
65%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
31
Age
Δ 3y
29
10-5
Career record
Δ 4 pp
24-9-1
L1
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Lopez: 22 sig / 3 TD ·
Perez: 44 sig / 0 TD
Matthew Lopez
Alejandro Perez
30
Sig strikes landed
34
75
Sig strikes attempted
87
39
Total strikes landed
56
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.1
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
90s
Control time
164s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Matthew Lopez
10-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
W
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
L
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
Blue corner
W2
Alejandro Perez
"Turbo"
24-9-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—