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Prelims2 Heavyweight

Arjan Bhullar vs Adam Wieczorek

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje ·Gila River Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Arjan Bhullar
Adam Wieczorek
48% 52%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
81"
32
Age
Δ 6y
26
10-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
11-2
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Bhullar: 9 sig / 2 TD · Wieczorek: 13 sig / 0 TD
Arjan Bhullar
Adam Wieczorek
29
Sig strikes landed
28
57
Sig strikes attempted
72
45
Total strikes landed
44
2.3
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.5
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
196s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
8%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Arjan Bhullar

10-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
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Blue corner
W1

Adam Wieczorek

"Siwy"
11-2
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
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