Back to UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje
Prelims2 Bantamweight

Luke Sanders vs Patrick Williams

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje ·Gila River Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Luke Sanders
Patrick Williams
74% 26%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 6"
73"
32
Age
Δ 4y
37
13-6
Career record
Δ 15 pp
8-7
L2
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sanders: 59 sig / 0 TD · Williams: 61 sig / 1 TD
Luke Sanders
Patrick Williams
31
Sig strikes landed
31
63
Sig strikes attempted
61
49
Total strikes landed
40
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
167s
Control time
63s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
25%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Luke Sanders

"Cool Hand"
13-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
L UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
Blue corner
L1

Patrick Williams

"The Animal"
8-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
L UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—