Back to UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje
Prelims2 Lightweight

Gilbert Burns vs Dan Moret

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje ·Gila River Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Gilbert Burns
Dan Moret
65% 35%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
32
Age
Δ 0y
31
W1
Current streak
—
7
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Burns: 31 sig / 2 TD · Moret: 20 sig / 0 TD
Gilbert Burns
Dan Moret
32
Sig strikes landed
30
70
Sig strikes attempted
66
47
Total strikes landed
43
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.7
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
173s
Control time
77s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Gilbert Burns

"Durinho"
23-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
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L UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
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W UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
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W UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
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Blue corner

Dan Moret

"The Hitman"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31