Back to UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje
Prelims2 Women's Flyweight

Shana Dobson vs Lauren Mueller

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje ·Gila River Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Shana Dobson
Lauren Mueller
43% 57%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
29
Age
Δ 3y
26
W1
Current streak
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1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dobson: 68 sig / 1 TD · Mueller: 58 sig / 2 TD
Shana Dobson
Lauren Mueller
40
Sig strikes landed
32
99
Sig strikes attempted
77
63
Total strikes landed
55
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
0.5
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
74s
Control time
135s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Shana Dobson

"Danger"
5-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W The Ultimate Fighter: A New Wor…
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Blue corner

Lauren Mueller

"Princess Tiger"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26