Prelims1
Middleweight
Krzysztof Jotko vs Brad Tavares
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje
·Gila River Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Krzysztof Jotko
Brad Tavares
80%
20%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
29
Age
Δ 2y
30
24-7
Career record
Δ 15 pp
22-13
L2
Current streak
W3
9
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Jotko: 24 sig / 0 TD ·
Tavares: 46 sig / 0 TD
Krzysztof Jotko
Brad Tavares
42
Sig strikes landed
40
96
Sig strikes attempted
96
55
Total strikes landed
57
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.0
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
139s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Krzysztof Jotko
24-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
L
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
Blue corner
W3
Brad Tavares
22-13
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
15 fights · 11-4
Last 5
W
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—
W
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—