Main
Middleweight
Israel Adesanya vs Marvin Vettori
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje
·Gila River Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Israel Adesanya
Marvin Vettori
81%
19%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 6"
74"
29
Age
Δ 4y
25
25-6
Career record
Δ 19 pp
19-10-2
W1
Current streak
D1
1
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Adesanya: 57 sig / 0 TD ·
Vettori: 46 sig / 2 TD
Israel Adesanya
Marvin Vettori
53
Sig strikes landed
31
92
Sig strikes attempted
79
57
Total strikes landed
47
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.3
0.7
Takedowns attempted
5.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
34s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Israel Adesanya
"The Last Stylebender"
25-6
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
Blue corner
D1
Marvin Vettori
"The Italian Dream"
19-10-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
4 fights · 2-1
Last 4
D
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
L
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
—
W
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—