Main
Women's Strawweight
Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs Cortney Casey
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje
·Gila River Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
Cortney Casey
66%
34%
Why
62"
Reach
Δ 5"
67"
32
Age
Δ 1y
31
18-14
Career record
Δ 9 pp
10-11
L2
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Waterson-Gomez: 61 sig / 3 TD ·
Casey: 36 sig / 0 TD
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
Cortney Casey
47
Sig strikes landed
49
103
Sig strikes attempted
121
74
Total strikes landed
62
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.7
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
205s
Control time
85s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
35%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
"The Karate Hottie"
18-14
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—
Blue corner
L1
Cortney Casey
"Cast Iron"
10-11
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
W
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—