Main
Welterweight
Carlos Condit vs Alex Oliveira
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje
·Gila River Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Carlos Condit
Alex Oliveira
66%
34%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
34
Age
Δ 4y
30
32-15
Career record
Δ 7 pp
22-13-1
L3
Current streak
L1
12
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Condit: 12 sig / 1 TD ·
Oliveira: 9 sig / 3 TD
Carlos Condit
Alex Oliveira
50
Sig strikes landed
55
115
Sig strikes attempted
111
69
Total strikes landed
73
0.3
Takedowns landed
2.5
1.1
Takedowns attempted
5.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
70s
Control time
178s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Carlos Condit
"The Natural Born Killer"
32-15
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
12 fights · 6-6
Last 5
L
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
L
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
L
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
L
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
Blue corner
L1
Alex Oliveira
"Cowboy"
22-13-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
11 fights · 7-3
Last 5
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—