Prelims1
Flyweight
Wilson Reis vs John Moraga
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje
·Gila River Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Wilson Reis
John Moraga
60%
40%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 1"
66"
33
Age
Δ 1y
34
23-11
Career record
Δ 6 pp
20-7
L2
Current streak
W2
10
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Reis: 12 sig / 8 TD ·
Moraga: 46 sig / 0 TD
Wilson Reis
John Moraga
31
Sig strikes landed
33
74
Sig strikes attempted
73
54
Total strikes landed
48
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
6.2
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
237s
Control time
85s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Wilson Reis
23-11
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
W
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
Blue corner
W2
John Moraga
20-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
W
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
L
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—