Prelims1
Middleweight
Tim Boetsch vs Antonio Carlos Junior
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje
·Gila River Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Tim Boetsch
Antonio Carlos Junior
40%
60%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 5"
79"
37
Age
Δ 9y
28
22-13
Career record
Δ 8 pp
12-5
W1
Current streak
W4
18
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Boetsch: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Carlos Junior: 31 sig / 1 TD
Tim Boetsch
Antonio Carlos Junior
24
Sig strikes landed
28
36
Sig strikes attempted
65
38
Total strikes landed
50
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.5
0.7
Takedowns attempted
5.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
93s
Control time
224s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
44%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tim Boetsch
"The Barbarian"
22-13
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
18 fights · 10-8
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
L
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
W
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
Blue corner
W4
Antonio Carlos Junior
"Cara de Sapato"
12-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
9 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—