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Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje ·Gila River Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Dustin Poirier
Justin Gaethje
54% 46%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
29
Age
Δ 0y
29
31-10
Career record
Δ 6 pp
27-6
W2
Current streak
L1
19
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 4
Poirier: 174 sig / 0 TD · Gaethje: 115 sig / 0 TD
Dustin Poirier
Justin Gaethje
107
Sig strikes landed
84
230
Sig strikes attempted
136
114
Total strikes landed
107
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
5.4
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
126s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Dustin Poirier

"The Diamond"
31-10 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database 19 fights · 14-4
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
W UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
L UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
W UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
Blue corner
L1

Justin Gaethje

"The Highlight"
27-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—