Prelims1
Lightweight
Evan Dunham vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
·Barclays Center
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Evan Dunham
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
55%
45%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
36
Age
Δ 7y
29
18-9-2
Career record
Δ 9 pp
12-5
D1
Current streak
W3
16
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Dunham: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Aubin-Mercier: 13 sig / 0 TD
Evan Dunham
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
50
Sig strikes landed
48
102
Sig strikes attempted
112
70
Total strikes landed
66
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.0
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
120s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
D1
Evan Dunham
18-9-2
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
16 fights · 9-6
Last 5
D
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
Blue corner
W3
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
"The Canadian Gangster"
12-5
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—