Prelims1
Women's Flyweight
Bec Rawlings vs Ashlee Evans-Smith
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
·Barclays Center
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Bec Rawlings
Ashlee Evans-Smith
54%
46%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
7-9
Career record
Δ 2 pp
6-7
L3
Current streak
L2
6
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rawlings: 88 sig / 0 TD ·
Evans-Smith: 116 sig / 1 TD
Bec Rawlings
Ashlee Evans-Smith
52
Sig strikes landed
50
119
Sig strikes attempted
130
72
Total strikes landed
75
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
139s
Control time
170s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Bec Rawlings
"Rowdy"
7-9
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 2-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. T…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
Blue corner
L2
Ashlee Evans-Smith
"Rebel Girl"
6-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
L
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—