Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Felice Herrig
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
·Barclays Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Felice Herrig
60%
40%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 1"
65"
32
Age
Δ 1y
34
17-10
Career record
Δ 3 pp
15-10
W1
Current streak
W4
6
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Kowalkiewicz: 126 sig / 0 TD ·
Herrig: 86 sig / 0 TD
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Felice Herrig
60
Sig strikes landed
58
149
Sig strikes attempted
152
83
Total strikes landed
88
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.8
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
70s
Control time
206s
Method
Decision
81%
KO/TKO
11%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
17-10
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—
L
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
L
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
Blue corner
W4
Felice Herrig
"Lil Bulldog"
15-10
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. T…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
L
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—