Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Renato Moicano
Calvin Kattar
59%
41%
Why
72"
Reach
72"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
21-8-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
24-10
L1
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Moicano: 116 sig / 0 TD ·
Kattar: 41 sig / 0 TD
Renato Moicano
Calvin Kattar
67
Sig strikes landed
64
175
Sig strikes attempted
162
80
Total strikes landed
68
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
73s
Control time
43s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Renato Moicano
21-8-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
Blue corner
W2
Calvin Kattar
24-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
W
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—