Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Joe Lauzon
Chris Gruetzemacher
64%
36%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
68"
34
Age
Δ 2y
32
28-17
Career record
Δ 9 pp
15-6
L2
Current streak
L2
19
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Lauzon: 48 sig / 0 TD ·
Gruetzemacher: 128 sig / 0 TD
Joe Lauzon
Chris Gruetzemacher
42
Sig strikes landed
46
106
Sig strikes attempted
88
57
Total strikes landed
59
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.1
4.2
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
148s
Control time
36s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Joe Lauzon
28-17
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
19 fights · 9-10
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
W
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
Blue corner
L2
Chris Gruetzemacher
"Gritz"
15-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. T…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—