Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tom Duquesnoy
Terrion Ware
80%
20%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 3"
71"
25
Age
Δ 7y
32
16-3
Career record
Δ 21 pp
17-10
L1
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Duquesnoy: 67 sig / 0 TD ·
Ware: 85 sig / 2 TD
Tom Duquesnoy
Terrion Ware
62
Sig strikes landed
48
130
Sig strikes attempted
131
65
Total strikes landed
64
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
21s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Tom Duquesnoy
"Fire Kid"
16-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
Blue corner
L2
Terrion Ware
"Flash"
17-10
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
The Ultimate Fighter: A New Wor…
—
L
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—