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Jimi Manuwa vs Jan Blachowicz

UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov ·The O2 Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Jimi Manuwa
Jan Blachowicz
36% 64%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
38
Age
Δ 3y
35
17-7
Career record
Δ 1 pp
30-11-2
L1
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
8

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Manuwa: 37 sig / 0 TD · Blachowicz: 97 sig / 1 TD
Jimi Manuwa
Jan Blachowicz
30
Sig strikes landed
34
72
Sig strikes attempted
66
45
Total strikes landed
50
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
114s
Control time
96s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Jimi Manuwa

"Poster Boy"
17-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database 9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. And…
—
W UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
L UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—
Blue corner
W2

Jan Blachowicz

30-11-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—
L UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
L UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—