Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Leon Edwards
Peter Sobotta
78%
22%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
27
Age
Δ 5y
31
23-6
Career record
Δ 10 pp
18-7-1
W4
Current streak
W2
8
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Edwards: 42 sig / 1 TD ·
Sobotta: 16 sig / 1 TD
Leon Edwards
Peter Sobotta
29
Sig strikes landed
21
67
Sig strikes attempted
66
47
Total strikes landed
38
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.6
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
115s
Control time
143s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Leon Edwards
"Rocky"
23-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. And…
—
W
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
Blue corner
W2
Peter Sobotta
18-7-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
—
L
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
—