Back to UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov
Prelims1 Middleweight

John Phillips vs Charles Byrd

UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov ·The O2 Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
John Phillips
Charles Byrd
76% 24%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
33
Age
Δ 2y
34

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Phillips: 0 sig / 0 TD · Byrd: 11 sig / 1 TD
John Phillips
Charles Byrd
40
Sig strikes landed
31
82
Sig strikes attempted
68
57
Total strikes landed
45
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
142s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

John Phillips

"The Welsh Wrecking Machine"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
Blue corner

Charles Byrd

"Kid Dynamite"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34