Main
Heavyweight
Fabricio Werdum vs Alexander Volkov
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov
·The O2 Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Fabricio Werdum
Alexander Volkov
13%
87%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 3"
80"
41
Age
Δ 11y
29
25-9-1
Career record
Δ 7 pp
41-11
W2
Current streak
W3
11
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 4
Werdum: 48 sig / 3 TD ·
Volkov: 48 sig / 2 TD
Fabricio Werdum
Alexander Volkov
73
Sig strikes landed
77
145
Sig strikes attempted
159
87
Total strikes landed
104
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.8
Takedowns attempted
0.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
208s
Control time
54s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Fabricio Werdum
"Vai Cavalo"
25-9-1
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
11 fights · 9-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
W
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
L
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
L
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
Blue corner
W3
Alexander Volkov
"Drago"
41-11
Career record
Height
79"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—