Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Stevie Ray
Kajan Johnson
70%
30%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
76"
28
Age
Δ 6y
34
23-10
Career record
Δ 7 pp
24-13-1
L1
Current streak
W3
7
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Ray: 24 sig / 3 TD ·
Johnson: 33 sig / 2 TD
Stevie Ray
Kajan Johnson
34
Sig strikes landed
32
73
Sig strikes attempted
79
49
Total strikes landed
48
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
89s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Stevie Ray
"Braveheart"
23-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
—
Blue corner
W3
Kajan Johnson
"Ragin'"
24-13-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nel…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber
—
L
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—