Back to UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov
Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Paul Craig vs Magomed Ankalaev

UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov ·The O2 Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Paul Craig
Magomed Ankalaev
24% 76%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
30
Age
Δ 4y
26
L2
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Craig: 18 sig / 2 TD · Ankalaev: 59 sig / 0 TD
Paul Craig
Magomed Ankalaev
25
Sig strikes landed
32
49
Sig strikes attempted
57
39
Total strikes landed
59
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.1
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
118s
Control time
164s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Paul Craig

"Bearjew"
17-11-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
L UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
W UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
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Blue corner

Magomed Ankalaev

0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26