Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Eric Shelton
Alex Perez
27%
73%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
27
Age
Δ 1y
26
13-6
Career record
Δ 5 pp
27-10
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Shelton: 41 sig / 0 TD ·
Perez: 29 sig / 5 TD
Eric Shelton
Alex Perez
30
Sig strikes landed
35
64
Sig strikes attempted
74
45
Total strikes landed
57
0.8
Takedowns landed
2.2
2.2
Takedowns attempted
6.4
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
93s
Control time
263s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Eric Shelton
"Showtime"
13-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
L
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
Blue corner
W1
Alex Perez
27-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—