Prelims1
Women's Bantamweight
Sara McMann vs Marion Reneau
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens
·Amway Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sara McMann
Marion Reneau
73%
27%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
37
Age
Δ 3y
41
13-7
Career record
Δ 12 pp
10-8-1
L1
Current streak
W1
9
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
McMann: 9 sig / 2 TD ·
Reneau: 23 sig / 0 TD
Sara McMann
Marion Reneau
38
Sig strikes landed
29
80
Sig strikes attempted
84
60
Total strikes landed
49
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.9
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
302s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
44%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Sara McMann
13-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
Blue corner
W1
Marion Reneau
"The Belizean Bruiser"
10-8-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
7 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Ha…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—