Back to UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens
Prelims1 Bantamweight

Renan Barao vs Brian Kelleher

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens ·Amway Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Renan Barao
Brian Kelleher
87% 13%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
66"
31
Age
Δ 0y
32
34-10
Career record
Δ 16 pp
25-16
L1
Current streak
W1
13
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Barao: 116 sig / 0 TD · Kelleher: 94 sig / 1 TD
Renan Barao
Brian Kelleher
56
Sig strikes landed
45
136
Sig strikes attempted
108
72
Total strikes landed
54
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.2
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
134s
Control time
78s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Renan Barao

"The Baron"
34-10 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
L UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
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W UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
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L UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
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L UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
Blue corner
W1

Brian Kelleher

"Boom"
25-16
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
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L UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
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W UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
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