Prelims2
Light Heavyweight
Sam Alvey vs Marcin Prachnio
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens
·Amway Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sam Alvey
Marcin Prachnio
69%
31%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
L1
Current streak
—
13
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Alvey: 10 sig / 1 TD ·
Prachnio: 15 sig / 0 TD
Sam Alvey
Marcin Prachnio
38
Sig strikes landed
39
71
Sig strikes attempted
80
46
Total strikes landed
48
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
0.9
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
58s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Sam Alvey
"Smile'N"
33-19-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
13 fights · 8-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
Blue corner
Marcin Prachnio
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30