Back to UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros
Main Welterweight

Thiago Alves vs Curtis Millender

UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros ·Frank Erwin Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Thiago Alves
Curtis Millender
40% 60%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
76"
34
Age
Δ 4y
30
W1
Current streak
—
10
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Alves: 33 sig / 1 TD · Millender: 47 sig / 0 TD
Thiago Alves
Curtis Millender
49
Sig strikes landed
47
111
Sig strikes attempted
118
68
Total strikes landed
60
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
93s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Thiago Alves

"Pitbull"
24-15
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 10 fights · 5-5
Last 5
W UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
L UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
L UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
W UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
Blue corner

Curtis Millender

"Curtious"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30