Back to UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros
Prelims1 Welterweight

Geoff Neal vs Brian Camozzi

UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros ·Frank Erwin Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Geoff Neal
Brian Camozzi
68% 32%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
78"
28
Age
Δ 1y
27
—
Current streak
L2
0
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Neal: 14 sig / 0 TD · Camozzi: 7 sig / 0 TD
Geoff Neal
Brian Camozzi
47
Sig strikes landed
33
99
Sig strikes attempted
81
58
Total strikes landed
40
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
162s
Control time
73s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Geoff Neal

"Handz of Steel"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
Blue corner
L2

Brian Camozzi

"Mantis"
7-6
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
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