Prelims1
Lightweight
Jared Gordon vs Diego Ferreira
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros
·Frank Erwin Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jared Gordon
Diego Ferreira
67%
33%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 6"
74"
30
Age
Δ 4y
33
22-9
Career record
Δ 3 pp
20-7
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Gordon: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Ferreira: 29 sig / 0 TD
Jared Gordon
Diego Ferreira
41
Sig strikes landed
39
88
Sig strikes attempted
97
66
Total strikes landed
54
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.6
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
164s
Control time
65s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Jared Gordon
"Flash"
22-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
Blue corner
W1
Diego Ferreira
20-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
L
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
W
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—