Main
Heavyweight
Derrick Lewis vs Marcin Tybura
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros
·Frank Erwin Center
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Derrick Lewis
Marcin Tybura
55%
45%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
33
Age
Δ 1y
32
29-14
Career record
Δ 2 pp
27-12
L1
Current streak
L1
12
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Lewis: 30 sig / 1 TD ·
Tybura: 37 sig / 1 TD
Derrick Lewis
Marcin Tybura
39
Sig strikes landed
45
85
Sig strikes attempted
85
49
Total strikes landed
68
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
115s
Control time
151s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Derrick Lewis
"The Black Beast"
29-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—
Blue corner
L1
Marcin Tybura
"Tybur"
27-12
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—
W
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—