Main
Welterweight
Donald Cerrone vs Yancy Medeiros
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros
·Frank Erwin Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Donald Cerrone
Yancy Medeiros
74%
26%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
35
Age
Δ 4y
30
36-18
Career record
Δ 0 pp
16-8
L3
Current streak
W3
26
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Cerrone: 28 sig / 0 TD ·
Medeiros: 25 sig / 0 TD
Donald Cerrone
Yancy Medeiros
53
Sig strikes landed
39
103
Sig strikes attempted
96
56
Total strikes landed
49
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.2
1.40
Knockdowns
0.60
40s
Control time
56s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
62%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
36-18
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
26 fights · 19-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—
L
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
W
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
Blue corner
W3
Yancy Medeiros
16-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
11 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
L
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—