Back to UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
Prelims1 Lightweight

Beneil Dariush vs Alexander Hernandez

UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya ·T-Mobile Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Beneil Dariush
Alexander Hernandez
65% 35%
Why
72"
Reach
72"
29
Age
Δ 3y
25
D1
Current streak
—
12
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Dariush: 4 sig / 0 TD · Hernandez: 8 sig / 0 TD
Beneil Dariush
Alexander Hernandez
43
Sig strikes landed
36
88
Sig strikes attempted
73
62
Total strikes landed
50
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.6
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
167s
Control time
90s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
D1

Beneil Dariush

23-8-2
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database 12 fights · 8-3
Last 5
D UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
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L UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
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W UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
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W UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
L UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
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Blue corner

Alexander Hernandez

"El Gran Chango"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25