Back to UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Ashley Yoder vs Mackenzie Dern

UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya ·T-Mobile Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Ashley Yoder
Mackenzie Dern
24% 76%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
63"
30
Age
Δ 6y
25
L2
Current streak
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2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Yoder: 52 sig / 0 TD · Dern: 70 sig / 1 TD
Ashley Yoder
Mackenzie Dern
36
Sig strikes landed
46
100
Sig strikes attempted
84
64
Total strikes landed
81
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.6
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
150s
Control time
185s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Ashley Yoder

"SpiderMonkey"
8-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
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L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
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Blue corner

Mackenzie Dern

0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25