Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
John Dodson
Pedro Munhoz
54%
46%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 1"
65"
33
Age
Δ 2y
32
22-13
Career record
Δ 5 pp
21-10
L1
Current streak
W4
12
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Dodson: 76 sig / 0 TD ·
Munhoz: 69 sig / 1 TD
John Dodson
Pedro Munhoz
50
Sig strikes landed
51
116
Sig strikes attempted
118
56
Total strikes landed
56
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
0.8
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
43s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
John Dodson
"The Magician"
22-13
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
L
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
Blue corner
W4
Pedro Munhoz
"The Young Punisher"
21-10
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—