Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Frankie Edgar
Brian Ortega
46%
54%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
36
Age
Δ 9y
27
24-11-1
Career record
Δ 11 pp
17-5
W2
Current streak
W5
15
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Edgar: 27 sig / 0 TD ·
Ortega: 25 sig / 0 TD
Frankie Edgar
Brian Ortega
67
Sig strikes landed
60
147
Sig strikes attempted
158
82
Total strikes landed
69
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.2
5.1
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
131s
Control time
23s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Frankie Edgar
"The Answer"
24-11-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
15 fights · 10-4
Last 5
W
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
W
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
L
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber
—
Blue corner
W5
Brian Ortega
"T-City"
17-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database
6 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
W
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
W
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—