Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
CB Dollaway
Hector Lombard
28%
72%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 5"
71"
35
Age
Δ 6y
40
18-9
Career record
Δ 7 pp
34-11-1
W1
Current streak
L4
13
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
DQ · Round 1
Dollaway: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Lombard: 19 sig / 0 TD
CB Dollaway
Hector Lombard
34
Sig strikes landed
34
70
Sig strikes attempted
60
50
Total strikes landed
49
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.3
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
123s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
CB Dollaway
"The Doberman"
18-9
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
13 fights · 7-6
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
L
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
—
Blue corner
L4
Hector Lombard
34-11-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
40
In our database
10 fights · 3-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
L
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—