Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Bryan Caraway
Cody Stamann
43%
57%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
64"
34
Age
Δ 5y
28
22-9
Career record
Δ 0 pp
22-8-1
W2
Current streak
W2
8
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Caraway: 59 sig / 1 TD ·
Stamann: 95 sig / 0 TD
Bryan Caraway
Cody Stamann
41
Sig strikes landed
46
124
Sig strikes attempted
98
67
Total strikes landed
68
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
7.6
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
178s
Control time
90s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Bryan Caraway
"Kid Lightning"
22-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
W
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—
Blue corner
W2
Cody Stamann
"The Spartan"
22-8-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
W
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—