Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jake Matthews
Li Jingliang
78%
22%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
24
Age
Δ 6y
30
24-8
Career record
Δ 6 pp
20-9
W1
Current streak
W4
8
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Matthews: 63 sig / 2 TD ·
Jingliang: 49 sig / 0 TD
Jake Matthews
Li Jingliang
36
Sig strikes landed
44
84
Sig strikes attempted
94
51
Total strikes landed
58
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.4
5.4
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
165s
Control time
60s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jake Matthews
"The Celtic Kid"
24-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
W
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
Blue corner
W4
Li Jingliang
"The Leech"
20-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nel…
—