Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tai Tuivasa
Cyril Asker
71%
29%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
25
Age
Δ 7y
32
16-10
Career record
Δ 10 pp
10-4
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Tuivasa: 38 sig / 0 TD ·
Asker: 3 sig / 0 TD
Tai Tuivasa
Cyril Asker
21
Sig strikes landed
6
46
Sig strikes attempted
11
32
Total strikes landed
16
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
0.0
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
90s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
55%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tai Tuivasa
"Bam Bam"
16-10
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
Blue corner
W1
Cyril Asker
"Silverback"
10-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—